Alternative Futures
Description
Alternative Futures is a method to explore possible ways a situation could evolve. It should be applied to highly ambiguous, uncertain, and complex issues to identify multiple possible outcomes along with the constraints and energy which could contribute to (or hinder) those outcomes. This method may leverage techniques such as 1-2-4-All and Expert Interviews (Fishbowls), in addition to being further explored and refined through other methods such as Future Backwards.
Inputs
- Participants
- General issue or topic area
- Experts in the domain of the general issue / topic
- Digital or physical white board, post-it notes or cards, pens
Approach
Begin the session with Expert Interviews (see AGLX Technique: Fishbowls/Expert Interviews) to understand the issue / topic and the context surrounding it.
Leverage a technique such as 1-2-4-All, 5 for 25, etc., to brainstorm a collection of factors and/or forces which affect the primary topic or issue. Prioritize and select the most critical (or, if criticality is difficult to determine, the most uncertain) two (2) factors.
Create an axis for each of the 2 factors, and determine the most appropriate scales to apply to each axis. For example, if “political system” was the axis, “stable” / “chaotic” might be the scale ends, or “democratic” / “autocratic” might be the scale ends – depending on the context of the issue and the way the axis and scale need to be interpreted in the given context.
Cross the axes into a plus (+) to form a 4-quadrant chart or matrix. The quadrants now represent possible future states with defined, alternative meanings.
Leverage a technique like 1-2-4-All or a method like Think-Write-Share to generate stories about possible alternative futures for each of the quadrants. Develop potential signposts or indicators which provide contextual depth and clarity relating to how those futures may have come about. If desired or necessary, consider leveraging a method such as Future Backwards to further explore and define the possible future states.
Explore potential options (decisions, strategies, changes, etc.) in each of the different future areas and how they might improve outcomes, looking for commonalities between them. Leverage these explorations to inform future decisions in order to better achieve desired outcomes, or to maintain situation awareness against potential trends leading toward undesired future states in order to better navigate and mitigate challenges and risks.
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