What If?
Description
What If enables strategic reframing and creates insights by superseding preconceived beliefs and antecedents about what would or could occur and assuming the conclusion. The conclusion can be framed positively or negatively, the technique works in either framing. The team then adopts an exploratory “post-mortem” approach to uncover the conditions necessary to have delivered the outcome, creating insights on ways to mitigate or exploit those conditions.
Additionally, for difficult decisions which may be based on strongly held beliefs about preconditions and likely outcomes, What If? analysis can help decision-makers gain insights into potential tradeoffs, risks, and consequences arising from discounted potential outcomes. Such understanding may lead to more robust risk management or hedging options.
May be used with TeamStorming approaches, as well.
Inputs
- Participants
- Focal Outcome – the outcome to be considered (positive or negative)
- Post-it notes or cards and pens
- Whiteboard and dry erase markers
Approach
Setup
With the participants together, present the Focal Outcome for the session.
For smaller groups, the facilitator may choose to have the entire group work together. For larger groups, the facilitator may break the main group up into sub-groups and have them work in parallel, reading out to each other periodically throughout or engaging a method such as Ritual Dissent to provide feedback and iterate on the plans.
Scenario development – triggers & events
Recreate the significant “triggers” that enabled the sequence of events to occur that resulted in the outcome. Be as specific as possible, ensuring that the sequence of events is logically coherent, even if its likelihood is extremely low.
Next, build a backwards timeline of events, as concretely as possible, based on the triggers. Maintain logical consistency and be as detailed as possible.
Where possible, create branches to reflect the potentially alternative routes which events could follow in order to still arrive at the outcome. This would look more like a flowchart with decision-points and branches.
Scenario development – scopes & markers
Consider the positive and negative scope of consequences for each scenario (the sequences of events and triggers). List those consequences.
Next list out constraints which enabled/resulted in the events’ occurrence. Also consider potential constraints whose absence had an enabling effect (could have but did not prevent a sequence from occurring).
Finally, for each sequence, event, or trigger, create a list of observable markers which could be monitored to provide an indication that the event would occur or is occurring.
Review and takeaway
Review all the scenarios and evaluate their meaning as it relates to the Focal Outcome. Are there implications for decision-makers? Are there real-world markers which need to be monitored to provide indication of a potential scenario realization? Are there constraints which need to be removed or applied?
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