Future Backwards

Ensure participants understand the session outcome and understand that the process requires several stages of working in ambiguity and uncertainty without being able to consolidate on a coherent output (occurs later).

Describe the current state (CS). Participants identify and write down key components of the current state on the hexies or post-its (using the same color). Have them place their responses in the working area in the center, vertically.

Identify Key Events (working backwards). Each participant identifies the most significant event in the immediate past that shaped the CS and places it on a hexie or post-it to the left of the CS cluster. Keep working backwards (from the cluster, not individual events).

Describe the Ideal Future State (Utopia). Utopia should be almost impossibly ideal (unachievable). Place responses in the upper right hand portion of the working space.

Describe the Worst Case Scenario Future State (Dystopia). The impossibly bad potential future state. Responses are placed in the lower right hand portion of the working space.

Connect the Future States to Events. Beginning first with Utopia, and then Dystopia, connect parts of those imagined future states back to CS events using imagined future events, similar to the way in which the teams build the history of events leading up to the CS.

Group round-table (if working across multiple groups). Have each group elect a spokesperson and explain the group’s work. Group members may rotate around to view other boards and ask questions. Continue until enough scenarios have been explored that the group feels comfortable.

Debrief. Have the group reflect on what they learned about their current state and likely/possible future states. What lessons can they carry forward into planning? What threats, opportunities, contingencies, and constraints should be further evaluated?

Considerations: