How organisations can evolve in the face of uncertainty
In a world where complexity is increasing and certainty is in short supply, traditional approaches to transformation often fall short. That’s why we invited Zhen Goh, Director at Emerginarium and AGLX Associate, to lead a session on how organisations can rethink transformation—not as a linear journey, but as an ongoing process of adaptation and evolution.
Why do so many transformation efforts fail?
Zhen opened the session by challenging the statistic that “70-90% of transformations fail.” This statistic reflects a flawed assumption—that change should follow a predictable, step-by-step path with clear success or failure.
But organisations aren’t machines. They’re complex, adaptive systems. And transformation within them is rarely a linear process. Success often comes from small, iterative adjustments—what we refer to as building adaptive capacity—rather than sweeping, top-down plans.
From best practices to evolvability
A central theme in the session was evolvability: an organisation’s ability to adapt and thrive in uncertain conditions. Rather than chasing best practices or fixed end states, evolvable organisations are structured to learn, experiment, and respond to shifting environments.
This idea draws on evolutionary biology, where systems evolve not by aiming for perfection, but by adapting to what is fit in the moment.
“Because organisations are living systems, we need to allow them to learn, adapt, and evolve.”
Not all change looks the same
Zhen outlined several “shapes” of adaptive change:
- Directional change – The familiar upward curve of optimisation and scaling
- Disruptive change – When existing models are no longer fit, and the system searches for new direction
- Stabilising change – When a new direction is emerging, but requires time to take hold
Most organisations default to directional thinking, expecting a straight line of progress. But as Zhen showed, real transformation often involves pulsing between modes—centralising and decentralising, exploring and exploiting, adapting and stabilising.
Introducing the Sense–Adapt–respond loop
One of the most practical takeaways from the session was the Sense–Adapt–respond loop—a lightweight, dynamic alternative to rigid planning.
- Sense: Distributed sensing across teams and functions to detect signals of change
- Adapt: Local experimentation, learning, and reconfiguration in response to those signals
- respond: Coherent action at the system level, informed by what’s been learned—not just what was planned
Unlike linear models, this loop operates in real time and at multiple levels. It’s about cultivating coherence through action, not just direction.
The three horizons of change
Zhen also introduced the Three Horizons framework, adapted for organisational transformation:
- Horizon 2 – Business as usual: What still works today but may be losing fit
- Horizon 1 – The emerging future: The vision of what we want to become
- Horizon 3 – The transition space: The messy, necessary middle where experiments, tensions, and learning happen
Rather than seeing these as sequential stages, Zhen emphasised that all three horizons coexist. Managing change means navigating the tensions between them—without defaulting to one-size-fits-all answers.
The key question: How are you organising for change?
Transformation isn’t something you do to an organisation. It’s something you organise for. And that means investing not just in structures and plans, but in capabilities:
- The ability to sense weak signals
- The capacity to adapt without waiting for permission
- The flexibility to respond coherently at scale
As Zhen reminded us:
“It’s not an organisation. It’s organising. We’re always organising. It’s in verb form. It’s always being done.”
Watch the webinar and keep the conversation going
If you’re navigating change in your organisation—or supporting others who are—this session is a rich source of practical insights for doing transformation differently.
To explore these ideas further, we also recommend Zhen’s book:
Evolvability in Business: Enterprise Transformation in an Age of Complexity
And if you’d like to discuss how your team can build adaptive capacity, we’d love to hear from you.